International Council of Scientific Unions
Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics (SCOSTEP)
1998 - International Solar Cycle Studies (ISCS) - 2002
presents
"International Solar Cycle Studies 2001 - Solar Variability,
Climate, and Space Weather"
Raintree Plaza Hotel and Conference Center, Longmont, COLORADO
June 13-16, 2001
Sponsored by the ISCS, NASA, NOAA, NCAR and the NSF RISE program
FINAL (as held) PROGRAM booklet
Symposium Reports (overall, WG1, WG2, WG3)
AGU Monograph
Key Scientific Questions
JGR paper submissions
The Editorial Meeting for the AGU Monograph "Solar Variability
and its Effect on the Earth's Atmosphere and Climate" will
take place on December 9, 2001, Moscone Center, San Francisco.
The meeting is scheduled between 10 AM and 5 PM.
Chapter authors please provide input via the web page
. For files, please send them as attachments to: iscs2001@hao.ucar.edu.
Please try to send these by September 30, 2001.
AGU Monograph
As mentioned during the meeting, the ISCS 2001 symposium will not
have a single publication. Instead, as the outcome of the meeting,
we will produce a volume in the AGU Geophysical Monograph series,
with a working title: "Solar Variability and its Effect on the
Earth's Atmospheric and Climate System". The Monograph has the
following editors as listed in the signed Letter of Agreement:
Judit Pap, Claus Frohlich, Hugh Hudson, Jeffrey Kuhn, John
McCormack, Gerard North, William Sprigg and S.T. Wu.
For details on formatting requirements for AGU monographs in LaTeX please
visit the AGU/Journals/Book ftp site.
The book is divided into the following major chapters:
- Introduction (Lead Author: J. Pap) 15 pages
- Fundamentals
- Fundamentals of the Solar Interior and Atmosphere
Topical Editor: J. Kuhn)
- Long-Term Solar Variability: Evolutionary Time Scales
Lead Author: R. Radick (confirmed) (15 pages)
- Dynamics of the Convection Zone and Solar Variability
Lead Author: S. Sofia and (confirmed) (15 pages)
- Theoretical models of solar magnetic variablity, Lead Author:
M. Schussler and Dieter Schmitt (confirmed) (15 pages)
- Dynamics of the Outer Solar Atmosphere Lead Author:
B.C. Low and M. Zhang (confirmed) (15 pages)
- Fundamentals of the Earth's Atmosphere and Climate
(Topical Editors: J. McCormack and G. North) :
Lead Author: J. Haigh (confirmed), 20 pages
- Solar Energy Flux Variations
- Solar Electromagnetic Radiation (Topical Editor: Hugh Hudson)
- Observations and mechanisms of global solar irradiance and luminosity
variations (J. Kuhn), 15 pages
- Measurements of total solar irradiance (C. Frohlich), 10 pages
- Measurements of the spectral distribution of solar irradiance
- Measurements of solar irradiance from IR to near-UV (C. Frohlich?),
5 pages
- Measurements of Solar UV irradiance (G. Rottman), 15 pages
- Measurements of solar EUV and X-Ray irradiance (T. Woods et al.), 15 pages
- Modeling of solar irradiance variations (P.Fox), 20 pages
- Reference Spectrum (G. Thuillier), 15 pages
- Solar Particle Variations (Topical Editor: S.T. Wu, Lead
Author: G. Simnett (confirmed) 25 pages
- Solar Variability and Climate
- Climate Forcing over Time Scales of Years to Centuries (Topical
Editor: G. North)
- Long-Term Solar Variability and Climate Change, Authors:
R. Muscheler and J. Beer (confirmed) 15 pages
- Long-Term Changes over Centuries and Millenia
Lead Author: P. Damon (confimed) 15 pages
- Detecting the Solar Cycle in the Earth's Climate
Lead Author: G. North (confirmed), 15 pages
- Modeling the Effect of Solar Variability on Climate
Lead Author: M. Schlesinger, Natalia Andronova, (confirmed)
15 pages
- Effects of Particle Flux Variations on Clouds and
Climate Lead Author: B. Tinsley and F. Yu (confirmed), 20 pages
- Photochemical and Dynamical Processes in the Middle and Upper
Atmosphere (Topical Editor: J. McCormack)
- The Effect of Solar UV Variations on the Atmosphere
Lead Author: L. Hood, confirmed
15 pages
- The Effect Solar Particle Efects on Ozone and Other
Constituents Lead Authors: C. Jackmann and R. D. McPeters (confirmed) 15 pages
- Impact of the EUV and X-ray Variations on the Earth's
Atmosphere, Lead Author: T. Fuller-Rowell, S. Solomon,
R. Roble, P. Brekke (confirmed) 15 pages
- Future Requirements (Lead Author: W. Sprigg) 10 pages
The content of the book is based on the scientific topics covered
during the ISCS 2001 meeting. The listed chapters are be divided
into sub-chapters. Each sub-chapter has a lead author who
will work together with experts of the particular fields when
completing the appropriate chapters.
Key Scientific Questions
We appreciate the
input you have all provided on key scientific questions to be addressed in
the book. The current list is:
- Irradiance variations: Measurements and modeling
- How important is the difference between solar irradiance and solar
luminosity ?
- The solar radiation is spherically symmetric. To what extent?
- What was the UV (TSI) variability during solar cycle 23? How does
it compare with that of earlier solar cycles both in absolute terms
and relative to proxies? Are the results of these comparisons consistent
with the use of proxies in long-term predictions (both forward and
backward in time)?
- What is the wavelength dependence of TSI variations?
- The MgII core-to-wing index is relatively easy to measure and seems
to track the solar EUV/UV irradiance emitted from the upper photosphere,
chromosphere, and transition region. What is the nature and limits
of this dependence? Does the dependence found for one solar cycle
apply to others?
- What EUV wavelength resolution is required for Earth system modeling?
What cadence would be needed? What would be the corresponding
requirements for solar science?
- Can we easily transfer scientific knowledge into operational capabilities
for space systems operations; if so, are there new solar irradiance
proxies that can be developed that will translate our best knowledge of
solar irradiance accuracy, precision, and variation to operational
applications?
- . What is the role of magnetic field in the irradiance variability ?
- To what extent is the observed variation of the solar brightness due
to the evolution of the magnetic field on the solar surface?"
- What is contribution of bright granules in the irradiance variability ?
- To what extent is the network (quiet + enhanced) responsible for the
total solar irradiance increase in phase with the solar cycle maximum ?
- The variability of Quiet Sun has to be accounted to explain the
total irradiance variability, since Quiet-Sun is not Quiet, it is
highly dynamic. (Possible question: How much the quiet sun changes
may contribute to irradiance changes?)
- Can we use correlations on the day-to-day time scale to evaluate
mechanisms responsible for decadal and longer term variations?
- Can the historical radius database be used as a long-term index for
solar variability?
- What is the upper limit solar radius variations can impose on
luminosity variations?
- Theory, solar variability
- What are primary energetic drivers of the solar cycles?
Magnetic? Thermal? Gravitational?...
- Regarding the convective energy flux which is inhibited by sunspots
large magnetic fields: where does it go ? In which time-scale is it
re-radiated ? (if re-radiated!)
- Is there any other mechanism than the emergence of the photospheric
magnetic fields, which contributes to solar irradiance variations ? (for
example, changes in the global temperature) How can we measure 'quiet Sun'
temperature using fine spectrum measurements ?
- Would it not be surprising and even unnatural if the Sun were
perfectly governed heat engine with respect to changes in its radius
and consequent conversion of potential energy to more or less
irradiant energy ?
- Solar Particle Variations (all 3. questions to G. Simnett)
- How intense a Solar Energetic Particle event can the Sun produce ?
- What are the effects of these SEP events on the Earth environment ?
- When do the most intense SEP events occur within each solar cycle ?
- Are there differences among the SEP intensities observed in the
different solar cycles ?
- Are there differences among the number of SEP events observed in
each solar cycle ?
- What is the current status of the models used to forecast or to
reproduce such events ?
- There are similarities between the physics of confined flares
and CMEs. However, pinpointing their differences appears to be
more important in order to understand what is specific to CMEs:
what makes an event CME, what is their role in solar activity?
- CMEs appear to serve as a valve through which the Sun gets rid
of the ever-amounting magnetic flux and helicity. What is the
role of the helicity build-up in the CME initiation process? Is
there a well-defined threshold beyond which the magnetic system
looses stability even in the simplest bipolar configuration, or
the magnetic complexity (magnetic breakout) is a necessary
condition for the CME process?
- What kind of processes generate helicity, and can we define
which one is dominant?
- How big is the CME source region - i.e. the scale of the erupting
magnetic structure or the mass source? The average CME is 45 degrees
across yet many people assign CMEs to sources as small as active
regions. Is there early lateral expansion below the occulting discs
of coronagraphs?
(WG2)
- What do we now believe about the CME-flare relationship? Cause and effect
or different responses to the same magnetic driver?
(WG2)
- What is the relevance of low coronal dimming (EUV/X-ray) under CME
events? Do they tell us anything about the onset process or the physics?
(WG2)
- What is the relevance of sigmoidal structures (X-ray in particular) as
signals of CME events - necessary indicators of an impending CME or simply
an indicator of magnetic complexity?
(WG2)
- Do CME forerunners exist? These were weakly emitting regions running well
ahead of the CMEs for a number of Skylab events
(WG2)
- Do flare precursors (weak soft X-ray bursts 10-20 minutes prior to
flares) exist?
(WG2)
- What is the relationship between coronal Moreton waves and CMEs? Are they
intimately related or just components of the 'Big Flare Syndrome'?
(WG2)
- Sun-Climate
- What level of solar cycle UV (or TSI) irradiance variability would
have a significant climate impact? Such levels would help to evaluate
past measurements and set goals for future measurements.
- How sensitive is the Earth's atmosphere to changes in solar radiation
and what time scales of solar variability are significant? (J. Haigh,
L. Hood, G. North)
- Do we know the primary mechanisms by which solar UV, FUV, EUV, and XUV
irradiance variations affect terrestrial global change; if so, what
is their significance and can we predict those variations? (G. Rottman,
T. Woods, J.Haigh, L. Hood, T. Fuller-Rowell)
- What are the relative contributions of the quite regular
deterministic variations, quasi-regular chaotic oscillations, and
stochastic fluctuations to variations in the Earth's climate system ?
- What fraction of the climatic variations can be described by a
well-determined mathematical functions, for example, representing
polyharmonic variations ?
- What periodic components of the polyharmonic variation of the
climate can be attributed to solar influence as a physical cause ?
Which of them are significant and to what extent ?
- How long back in the past can we find manifestations of those
cyclical components ?
- Is the manifestation of the solar-induced fundamental periods
quite stable in course of time or does it indicate there are some
transitional time intervals ? Can those transitional time intervals
be linked to any significant climatic events on the Earth ?
- During cycles 21 and 22, when the sunspot cycle maximizes, solar
irradiance maximizes, the solar wind maximizes and the Aa index
increases with the solar wind. On the other hand the galactic cosmic
ray flux is at a minimum and production of cosmogenic isotopes is
reduced. Delta C-14 variations, in addition to the Schwabe cycle
(ca. 11 yr), have other significant periods, for example, the
Gleissberg cycle (ca. 88 yr) and the Suess cycle (ca. 208 yr). Is
it not possible that solar irradiance also maximizes when these
other longer cycles maximize. To put it another way, is solar
irradiance proportional to solar activity for all of these cycles ?
- What is the global climatic effect of the varying GCR flux and
consequent varying ionization of atmospheric components ?
- If the effect is varying cloudiness and consequent varying Earth
albedo, can this be best verified by lunar reflectance or satellite
measurements of global cloud cover keeping in mind the variable and
complex effect of cloud type and altitude ?
- Could the Hallstattzeit cycle (2,200-2,400 yr), that is
associated with little ice ages, be a consequence of increased solar
radius followed by contraction of solar radius ?
- What are the relative advantages and disadvantages of the various
cosmogenic isotopes in the study of solar activity and climate, for
example, C-14 vs. Be-10 ?
- What are the weather changes as function of solar variability.
- What is the contribution of particle energy deposition to changes in
the weather.
- Do precipitating particles have a catalytic role in weather?
- Does the earth have a net mass gain or loss due to space weather
effects (low, constant solar wind influx vs "infrequent" but
more massive particle loss due to storms and substorms).
- Does this change atmospheric composition over centuries since
preferably H (and O) escapes?
- How variable are particle climatological structures?
- What affect do particle variations have on the atmosphere?
JGR Publication
Since the AGU Monograph will not collect individual papers, authors
who consider their talks and/or poster papers to be published, we
encourage authors to submit their papers to JGR's Blue Volume. JGR
has agreed to publish these papers. Authors must comply with JGR's
requirements (format, etc...) and all these papers will go through
regular JGR review process. JGR will collect six of the
accepted papers in each issues with a note that the papers were
presented at the ISCS 2001 Symposium. There is no deadline for
submitting papers to JGR, however we encourage authors to
send their papers as soon as possible, so they papers can go into
the review process and can be published as soon as possible.
If you have any questions please contact Judit Pap at
pap@astro.ucla.edu, or iscs2001@hao.ucar.edu.
Thank you very much for your correspondence,
Judit Pap and Peter Fox
Last revised: Peter Fox, November 12, 2001