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International Council of Scientific Unions
Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics (SCOSTEP)

1998 - International Solar Cycle Studies (ISCS) - 2002

ISCS Home Page

presents

"International Solar Cycle Studies 2001 - Solar Variability, Climate, and Space Weather"

Raintree Plaza Hotel and Conference Center, Longmont, COLORADO

June 13-16, 2001

Sponsored by the ISCS, NASA, NOAA, NCAR and the NSF RISE program


FINAL (as held) PROGRAM booklet
Symposium Reports (overall, WG1, WG2, WG3)
AGU Monograph
Key Scientific Questions
JGR paper submissions

The Editorial Meeting for the AGU Monograph "Solar Variability and its Effect on the Earth's Atmosphere and Climate" will take place on December 9, 2001, Moscone Center, San Francisco. The meeting is scheduled between 10 AM and 5 PM.

Chapter authors please provide input via the web page . For files, please send them as attachments to: iscs2001@hao.ucar.edu. Please try to send these by September 30, 2001.

AGU Monograph

As mentioned during the meeting, the ISCS 2001 symposium will not have a single publication. Instead, as the outcome of the meeting, we will produce a volume in the AGU Geophysical Monograph series, with a working title: "Solar Variability and its Effect on the Earth's Atmospheric and Climate System". The Monograph has the following editors as listed in the signed Letter of Agreement: Judit Pap, Claus Frohlich, Hugh Hudson, Jeffrey Kuhn, John McCormack, Gerard North, William Sprigg and S.T. Wu.

For details on formatting requirements for AGU monographs in LaTeX please visit the AGU/Journals/Book ftp site.

The book is divided into the following major chapters:

  1. Introduction (Lead Author: J. Pap) 15 pages
  2. Fundamentals
    1. Fundamentals of the Solar Interior and Atmosphere Topical Editor: J. Kuhn)
      1. Long-Term Solar Variability: Evolutionary Time Scales Lead Author: R. Radick (confirmed) (15 pages)
      2. Dynamics of the Convection Zone and Solar Variability Lead Author: S. Sofia and (confirmed) (15 pages)
      3. Theoretical models of solar magnetic variablity, Lead Author: M. Schussler and Dieter Schmitt (confirmed) (15 pages)
      4. Dynamics of the Outer Solar Atmosphere Lead Author: B.C. Low and M. Zhang (confirmed) (15 pages)
    2. Fundamentals of the Earth's Atmosphere and Climate (Topical Editors: J. McCormack and G. North) : Lead Author: J. Haigh (confirmed), 20 pages
  3. Solar Energy Flux Variations
    1. Solar Electromagnetic Radiation (Topical Editor: Hugh Hudson)
      1. Observations and mechanisms of global solar irradiance and luminosity variations (J. Kuhn), 15 pages
      2. Measurements of total solar irradiance (C. Frohlich), 10 pages
      3. Measurements of the spectral distribution of solar irradiance
        1. Measurements of solar irradiance from IR to near-UV (C. Frohlich?), 5 pages
        2. Measurements of Solar UV irradiance (G. Rottman), 15 pages
        3. Measurements of solar EUV and X-Ray irradiance (T. Woods et al.), 15 pages
      4. Modeling of solar irradiance variations (P.Fox), 20 pages
      5. Reference Spectrum (G. Thuillier), 15 pages
    2. Solar Particle Variations (Topical Editor: S.T. Wu, Lead Author: G. Simnett (confirmed) 25 pages
  4. Solar Variability and Climate
    1. Climate Forcing over Time Scales of Years to Centuries (Topical Editor: G. North)
      1. Long-Term Solar Variability and Climate Change, Authors: R. Muscheler and J. Beer (confirmed) 15 pages
      2. Long-Term Changes over Centuries and Millenia Lead Author: P. Damon (confimed) 15 pages
      3. Detecting the Solar Cycle in the Earth's Climate Lead Author: G. North (confirmed), 15 pages
      4. Modeling the Effect of Solar Variability on Climate Lead Author: M. Schlesinger, Natalia Andronova, (confirmed) 15 pages
      5. Effects of Particle Flux Variations on Clouds and Climate Lead Author: B. Tinsley and F. Yu (confirmed), 20 pages
    2. Photochemical and Dynamical Processes in the Middle and Upper Atmosphere (Topical Editor: J. McCormack)
      1. The Effect of Solar UV Variations on the Atmosphere Lead Author: L. Hood, confirmed 15 pages
      2. The Effect Solar Particle Efects on Ozone and Other Constituents Lead Authors: C. Jackmann and R. D. McPeters (confirmed) 15 pages
      3. Impact of the EUV and X-ray Variations on the Earth's Atmosphere, Lead Author: T. Fuller-Rowell, S. Solomon, R. Roble, P. Brekke (confirmed) 15 pages
  5. Future Requirements (Lead Author: W. Sprigg) 10 pages
The content of the book is based on the scientific topics covered during the ISCS 2001 meeting. The listed chapters are be divided into sub-chapters. Each sub-chapter has a lead author who will work together with experts of the particular fields when completing the appropriate chapters.

Key Scientific Questions

We appreciate the input you have all provided on key scientific questions to be addressed in the book. The current list is:
  1. Irradiance variations: Measurements and modeling
    1. How important is the difference between solar irradiance and solar luminosity ?
    2. The solar radiation is spherically symmetric. To what extent?
    3. What was the UV (TSI) variability during solar cycle 23? How does it compare with that of earlier solar cycles both in absolute terms and relative to proxies? Are the results of these comparisons consistent with the use of proxies in long-term predictions (both forward and backward in time)?
    4. What is the wavelength dependence of TSI variations?
    5. The MgII core-to-wing index is relatively easy to measure and seems to track the solar EUV/UV irradiance emitted from the upper photosphere, chromosphere, and transition region. What is the nature and limits of this dependence? Does the dependence found for one solar cycle apply to others?
    6. What EUV wavelength resolution is required for Earth system modeling? What cadence would be needed? What would be the corresponding requirements for solar science?
    7. Can we easily transfer scientific knowledge into operational capabilities for space systems operations; if so, are there new solar irradiance proxies that can be developed that will translate our best knowledge of solar irradiance accuracy, precision, and variation to operational applications?
    8. . What is the role of magnetic field in the irradiance variability ?
    9. To what extent is the observed variation of the solar brightness due to the evolution of the magnetic field on the solar surface?"
    10. What is contribution of bright granules in the irradiance variability ?
    11. To what extent is the network (quiet + enhanced) responsible for the total solar irradiance increase in phase with the solar cycle maximum ?
    12. The variability of Quiet Sun has to be accounted to explain the total irradiance variability, since Quiet-Sun is not Quiet, it is highly dynamic. (Possible question: How much the quiet sun changes may contribute to irradiance changes?)
    13. Can we use correlations on the day-to-day time scale to evaluate mechanisms responsible for decadal and longer term variations?
    14. Can the historical radius database be used as a long-term index for solar variability?
    15. What is the upper limit solar radius variations can impose on luminosity variations?
  2. Theory, solar variability
    1. What are primary energetic drivers of the solar cycles? Magnetic? Thermal? Gravitational?...
    2. Regarding the convective energy flux which is inhibited by sunspots large magnetic fields: where does it go ? In which time-scale is it re-radiated ? (if re-radiated!)
    3. Is there any other mechanism than the emergence of the photospheric magnetic fields, which contributes to solar irradiance variations ? (for example, changes in the global temperature) How can we measure 'quiet Sun' temperature using fine spectrum measurements ?
    4. Would it not be surprising and even unnatural if the Sun were perfectly governed heat engine with respect to changes in its radius and consequent conversion of potential energy to more or less irradiant energy ?
  3. Solar Particle Variations (all 3. questions to G. Simnett)
    1. How intense a Solar Energetic Particle event can the Sun produce ?
    2. What are the effects of these SEP events on the Earth environment ?
    3. When do the most intense SEP events occur within each solar cycle ?
    4. Are there differences among the SEP intensities observed in the different solar cycles ?
    5. Are there differences among the number of SEP events observed in each solar cycle ?
    6. What is the current status of the models used to forecast or to reproduce such events ?
    7. There are similarities between the physics of confined flares and CMEs. However, pinpointing their differences appears to be more important in order to understand what is specific to CMEs: what makes an event CME, what is their role in solar activity?
    8. CMEs appear to serve as a valve through which the Sun gets rid of the ever-amounting magnetic flux and helicity. What is the role of the helicity build-up in the CME initiation process? Is there a well-defined threshold beyond which the magnetic system looses stability even in the simplest bipolar configuration, or the magnetic complexity (magnetic breakout) is a necessary condition for the CME process?
    9. What kind of processes generate helicity, and can we define which one is dominant?
    10. How big is the CME source region - i.e. the scale of the erupting magnetic structure or the mass source? The average CME is 45 degrees across yet many people assign CMEs to sources as small as active regions. Is there early lateral expansion below the occulting discs of coronagraphs? (WG2)
    11. What do we now believe about the CME-flare relationship? Cause and effect or different responses to the same magnetic driver? (WG2)
    12. What is the relevance of low coronal dimming (EUV/X-ray) under CME events? Do they tell us anything about the onset process or the physics? (WG2)
    13. What is the relevance of sigmoidal structures (X-ray in particular) as signals of CME events - necessary indicators of an impending CME or simply an indicator of magnetic complexity? (WG2)
    14. Do CME forerunners exist? These were weakly emitting regions running well ahead of the CMEs for a number of Skylab events (WG2)
    15. Do flare precursors (weak soft X-ray bursts 10-20 minutes prior to flares) exist? (WG2)
    16. What is the relationship between coronal Moreton waves and CMEs? Are they intimately related or just components of the 'Big Flare Syndrome'? (WG2)
  4. Sun-Climate
    1. What level of solar cycle UV (or TSI) irradiance variability would have a significant climate impact? Such levels would help to evaluate past measurements and set goals for future measurements.
    2. How sensitive is the Earth's atmosphere to changes in solar radiation and what time scales of solar variability are significant? (J. Haigh, L. Hood, G. North)
    3. Do we know the primary mechanisms by which solar UV, FUV, EUV, and XUV irradiance variations affect terrestrial global change; if so, what is their significance and can we predict those variations? (G. Rottman, T. Woods, J.Haigh, L. Hood, T. Fuller-Rowell)
    4. What are the relative contributions of the quite regular deterministic variations, quasi-regular chaotic oscillations, and stochastic fluctuations to variations in the Earth's climate system ?
    5. What fraction of the climatic variations can be described by a well-determined mathematical functions, for example, representing polyharmonic variations ?
    6. What periodic components of the polyharmonic variation of the climate can be attributed to solar influence as a physical cause ? Which of them are significant and to what extent ?
    7. How long back in the past can we find manifestations of those cyclical components ?
    8. Is the manifestation of the solar-induced fundamental periods quite stable in course of time or does it indicate there are some transitional time intervals ? Can those transitional time intervals be linked to any significant climatic events on the Earth ?
    9. During cycles 21 and 22, when the sunspot cycle maximizes, solar irradiance maximizes, the solar wind maximizes and the Aa index increases with the solar wind. On the other hand the galactic cosmic ray flux is at a minimum and production of cosmogenic isotopes is reduced. Delta C-14 variations, in addition to the Schwabe cycle (ca. 11 yr), have other significant periods, for example, the Gleissberg cycle (ca. 88 yr) and the Suess cycle (ca. 208 yr). Is it not possible that solar irradiance also maximizes when these other longer cycles maximize. To put it another way, is solar irradiance proportional to solar activity for all of these cycles ?
    10. What is the global climatic effect of the varying GCR flux and consequent varying ionization of atmospheric components ?
    11. If the effect is varying cloudiness and consequent varying Earth albedo, can this be best verified by lunar reflectance or satellite measurements of global cloud cover keeping in mind the variable and complex effect of cloud type and altitude ?
    12. Could the Hallstattzeit cycle (2,200-2,400 yr), that is associated with little ice ages, be a consequence of increased solar radius followed by contraction of solar radius ?
    13. What are the relative advantages and disadvantages of the various cosmogenic isotopes in the study of solar activity and climate, for example, C-14 vs. Be-10 ?
    14. What are the weather changes as function of solar variability.
    15. What is the contribution of particle energy deposition to changes in the weather.
    16. Do precipitating particles have a catalytic role in weather?
    17. Does the earth have a net mass gain or loss due to space weather effects (low, constant solar wind influx vs "infrequent" but more massive particle loss due to storms and substorms).
    18. Does this change atmospheric composition over centuries since preferably H (and O) escapes?
    19. How variable are particle climatological structures?
    20. What affect do particle variations have on the atmosphere?


JGR Publication

Since the AGU Monograph will not collect individual papers, authors who consider their talks and/or poster papers to be published, we encourage authors to submit their papers to JGR's Blue Volume. JGR has agreed to publish these papers. Authors must comply with JGR's requirements (format, etc...) and all these papers will go through regular JGR review process. JGR will collect six of the accepted papers in each issues with a note that the papers were presented at the ISCS 2001 Symposium. There is no deadline for submitting papers to JGR, however we encourage authors to send their papers as soon as possible, so they papers can go into the review process and can be published as soon as possible.

If you have any questions please contact Judit Pap at pap@astro.ucla.edu, or iscs2001@hao.ucar.edu.

Thank you very much for your correspondence,

Judit Pap and Peter Fox


Last revised: Peter Fox, November 12, 2001