Title: Forecasting geomagnetic storm with the feature of interplanetary energetic particles
Author: Bingsen Xue
Affil:
Email: xbs@earth.sepc.ac.cn
Authors: Zonghai Ye
Abstract: From the aspect that the shock created by CME or high speed solar wind steam will accelerate the ions in the interplanetary, the enhancement of energetic proton flux in near earth interplanetary space is discriminated and studied. And we found that such enhancement would always lead geomagnetic disturbances, even geomagnetic storms more than one day ahead. Our interpretation is that the shock get its high efficiency to accelerate ions when it move toward the earth. So we can confirm the coming of the geoeffective shocks from both CMEs and high speed streams with such phenonenon. Statistic showed that from 1998 to 2000, all of the sever geomagnetic storm were led by enhancement in energetic particle flux and 80% for those with Ap<20. A new forecasting method of geomagnetic storm based on this aspect is also issued in this paper. The test run showed a very good result of 90% hit rate. But the false alert rate is also a little high.