Title: Effective space weather forecasts/warnings with observations of
active-region evolution
Author: Patrick S. McIntosh
Affil: HelioSynoptics, Boulder, Colorado 80301
Email: pmcintosh@solar.stanford.edu
Abstract: Alerts and forecasts of solar eruptive activity issued in 1997-2000 are summarized and verified. The HelioSynoptics services exceled those issued by U.S. federal services because active region evolution was monitored more often and with better resolution than provided with present operational observing systems. Case histories are reviewed for the sources of the greatest events so far in Solar Cycle 23.
An overview of the status of Cycle 23 is given in comparison with earlier cycles. Flare activity is surprisingly weak in this cycle.